Commercial drones: market evolution and current status

According to the latest activity reports (the most recent dating from 2019) published by the French Civil Aviation Safety Directorate (DSAC), the number of registered commercial drones (i.e. over 800 grams) is steadily increasing: 9,582, 13,647, and 15,946 respectively between 2017 and 2019. These civil aircraft are owned by approximately 8,500 commercial drone operators (manufacturers, training organizations, industrial companies, service providers). The recorded annual growth thus reached 29.6% over recent years. This surge supports the June 20, 2020 study conducted by SVP, which estimates the annual growth of the civil commercial drone market at 27.2% between 2018 and 2024.

Commercial drones currently used exclusively for visual line of sight flights

The use of a drone is currently exclusively associated with national operational scenarios (S1 – S2 – S3) at short distances, meaning the remote pilot must be located less than 1 km from the platform to operate the drone. This type of operational scenario and the specific activities associated with it cover a wide variety of use cases: (i) Media and aerial photography (25%); (ii) Surveillance and civil protection (20%); (iii) Construction and infrastructure inspection (20%); (iv) Agriculture (15%); (v) Mining, quarries, and earthmoving (15%); (vi) Other (5%).

Long-range (between 1 km and 100 km) and extended-range (+100 km) drone flights are currently prohibited (unless a specific exemption is granted with approval of a specific safety filing).

A situation at odds with the evolving needs of clients

While the use of civil drones to meet business operational needs has been demonstrated across many industries, the widespread adoption of this platform is slow to take off because operating scenarios impose conditions that undermine its economic viability:

• The requirement to have the remote pilot (holding advanced drone pilot qualifications) close to their drone, which compromises the drastic drop in flight-hour costs promised by uncrewed flight concepts.

• The impact (depending on the flight mission) on air traffic management, requiring prior flight authorizations.

New use cases involving long-distance flights (package delivery, surveillance and inspection of linear infrastructure, border surveillance, surveillance of semi-wilderness areas, etc.) are emerging and should significantly accelerate this growth (the flight-hour cost should drop substantially for these types of missions). However, these new activities require:

• Operational scenarios for long distance AND extended range not covered by national operational scenarios (S-1, S-2, S-3) and upcoming European scenarios (STS-1 and STS-2)

• Performance improvements for platforms in terms of range/payload balance in the 4-25 kg range and especially the 25-150 kg range (or exceptionally higher), creating ground safety constraints (take-off – landing) that are costly, in addition to increasing the total cost of ownership of commercial drones.

• Deploying dedicated telecommunications infrastructure (adapted to each operational zone) between the ground control station and the drone to overcome the limits of the drone's radio control range.

Projections from institutional bodies

According to the study "Perspective de développement de la filière du drone civil à l’export" published by the DGE, the DGAC (French Civil Aviation Authority), and PIPAME on June 5, 2017, more than 70% of commercial drone flights should be conducted beyond visual line of sight by 2024. This study is corroborated by the "European Drones Outlook Study" from the SESAR Joint Undertaking published in November 2016. It values the European market at 400,000 drones (100,000 drones in France) by 2035, 70% of which will perform beyond visual line of sight flights.

• Package delivery (2-10 kg) in remote locations using vertical take-off and landing (VTOL) drones – 7,000
• Inspection and surveillance of linear infrastructure – 20,000
• Precision agriculture: crop or environmental diagnostics – 5,000
• Surveillance of semi-wilderness areas (border control or civil protection) – 2,500
• Area reconnaissance for traffic monitoring: air traffic mapping – 5,000
• Precision agriculture: spraying – 500
• Air transport of heavy cargo (200 kg) in low-density or maritime areas – 2,500
• Air transport of heavy cargo (200 kg payload) in local networks – 25,000
• Real-time broadcast media: aerial filming and imaging – 500
• Other use cases – 12,000

So, what are the technical and regulatory barriers to overcome for extended-range flight scenarios?

The intrinsic reliability of the aircraft should enable drone operations and the safe execution of these missions within a few years. The main challenges identified to date include:

• The security and quality of telecommunications between the drone and the ground control station;
• In-flight drone autonomy via the autopilot board's capability to handle air risks, specifically moving object detection in airspace and real-time trajectory recalculation.